Three Questions That Will Decide Kentucky at Oklahoma

Kentucky has spent the last two Saturdays doing something most programs never do once: winning 35-34 in overtime. First it was South Carolina on the road, then No. 10 LSU at Kroger Field, a win that sent fans onto the field and the Cats back into the AP Top 25. At 5-1 overall and 3-1 in the SEC, Will Stein is off to the best start by a first-year Kentucky head coach since Alpha Brumage went 5-1 in 1913, according to UK Athletics' postgame notes.

Now comes the hard part. Kentucky visits Oklahoma on Saturday, Oct. 17, at 7:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network. It is the program's first trip to Oklahoma since 1980. Here are the three questions we think decide it.

1. Is the offensive line as good as Brent Venables says?

This week Oklahoma's head coach said Kentucky has the best offensive line his team has seen this season, as Kentucky Sports Radio reported. That came a day after the Kentucky line was named to the Joe Moore Award midseason honor roll, the award given to the most outstanding offensive line unit in college football.

Coaches praise opponents all the time during game week, so take the compliment with a grain of salt. But the film backs up the honor roll. Kentucky won two straight one-point games because it could stay on schedule late, convert when it had to and give its quarterback time when the pocket mattered. Against a Venables defense, which is built to create negative plays and take you out of rhythm, that matters more than any single skill player. If the Big Blue Wall wins on first and second down, Kentucky gets to call the game it wants. If it loses those downs, the Cats will be chasing third-and-long all night in a hostile stadium.

2. What happens if CJ Baxter is limited?

The SEC availability report listed running back CJ Baxter as questionable, the first time he has appeared on the report this season, per On3, and he was still questionable in reporting updated Thursday by WildcatCorner. Yahoo Sports reported that Baxter got banged up in the second half against LSU but finished the game and scored in overtime. Baxter has 484 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, per Sooners Wire. That is a big share of what this offense does near the goal line.

If Baxter plays at less than full speed, or not at all, the depth behind him is Jason Patterson and Jovantae Barnes. Our view is that the line question and the Baxter question are really the same question. A strong line makes a backup running back look better than his résumé, and a struggling one makes even a healthy starter disappear. Watch Kentucky's first two drives. If the run game is working without Baxter carrying the load, that tells you the line is real.

Kentucky's report also listed Alex Afari Jr., Elijah Brown and Kalen Edwards as questionable, with four players out. Statuses change nightly, so check the final report before kickoff.

3. Can this team win one without needing overtime?

Two overtime wins in a row prove two things: this group does not panic, and it has not put teams away. Living on the edge is fun until the coin flip goes the other way. On the road, in a loud building, against a defense that feeds off momentum, Kentucky probably cannot afford to spot Oklahoma a slow start and count on another late rally.

Stein has said the right things. Asked after the LSU win about a comparison to Bear Bryant, he deflected: "It's about them. It's not about wins. We are 5-1, which is great. And we got more opportunities ahead." The next step for a team that has learned to survive is to learn to lead in the fourth quarter and protect it.

A little history to set the stage

This matchup carries one of college football's best old arguments. Oklahoma finished the 1950 regular season 10-0 and No. 1 in both major polls, and back then the regular-season polls crowned the champion. Then Bryant's Wildcats beat the top-ranked Sooners 13-7 in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1, 1951, ending Oklahoma's 31-game winning streak. Both schools claim the 1950 title to this day, as the Lexington Herald-Leader laid out this week. We know which side we're on, but Saturday is a chance to add a modern chapter instead of relitigating the old one.

What we're watching

Kentucky wins if the line controls the line of scrimmage, the run game holds up whatever Baxter's status, and the Cats play from ahead for once. Oklahoma wins if its defense creates early negative plays, forces Kentucky into obvious passing downs and turns the crowd into a factor. That is our read, not a guarantee, and it is why we'll be glued to the first quarter.

Two walk-offs in a row. Kentucky doesn't need a third, just a full four quarters. Go Cats.

Big Blue Times is an independent fan site and is not affiliated with the University of Kentucky.

Sources: UK Athletics, Kentucky-LSU postgame notes, UK Athletics, LSU recap, UK Athletics, postgame quotes, KSR/On3, Venables on Kentucky's OL, WildcatCorner, availability report (updated Thursday, Oct. 15), Yahoo Sports, Kentucky vs. Oklahoma injury report, 247Sports, first injury report, On3, SEC availability report, Sooners Wire, Baxter stats, Lexington Herald-Leader, 1950 title, ESPN schedule